New Zealand faces a number of complex serious hazards and national security threats – known as National Risks - that could trigger a national level crisis at any time, and cause significant harm to our collective safety, security and prosperity.
New Zealand’s National Risk Register
The National Risk Register is a key part of the National Risk and Resilience Framework, and is used to identify, track and ultimately build resilience to National Risks.
It currently includes 33 National Risks; those hazards and threats that could have serious immediate and/or long-term effects on New Zealand’s safety, prosperity and/or national security, requiring national-level intervention and coordination across the 4Rs (Reduction, Readiness, Response and Recovery).
Maximum Credible Event scenarios are identified for each National Risk to help us consider the most significant crises New Zealand could face, how likely these are and how they could affect us.
While it is not possible to capture every major risk facing New Zealand, the National Risk Register supports government to make targeted decisions that focus resources to where they will have greatest impact.
How are our National Risks managed?
A range of organisations and people at the national, regional, local and community level contribute to the management of New Zealand’s National Risks.
At the national government level, two boards made up of central government agency leaders are responsible for governance and oversight across National Risks, collectively driving improvements in risk management. These are called the National Hazards Board and the National Security Board, and are chaired by the Chief Executive of DPMC.
Evidence and expertise, including science, research and data, underpins our understanding and assessment of National Risks. Intelligence helps us understand more about the intentions and capabilities of those who may wish to do New Zealand harm, the drivers and methods for such activity, as well as the extent and likely impact of their efforts. The National Security Intelligence Priorities outline key areas of focus for New Zealand’s intelligence efforts, supporting the government to make informed decisions about our national security.
New Zealand’s National Risks
The tables below lists the National Risks on New Zealand’s National Risk Register.
Risk-coordinating agencies are responsible for working with DPMC to provide coordinated cross-agency advice to the relevant Board on strategic risk management gaps or opportunities, through the activities outlined in the National Risk and Resilience Framework.
We regularly review and update this page to support public access to current information on our National Risks.
| National Risk | Description | Risk-coordinating agency(s) | Further information |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | An earthquake is a natural event caused by the release of strain energy in the Earth’s crust, resulting in strong and sometimes extremely violent ground shaking. Secondary effects can include landslides, liquefaction, building collapse, fire and tsunami. | NEMA | Earthquake » National Emergency Management Agency (civildefence.govt.nz) |
| Tsunami | Tsunami is a natural event consisting of a series of waves generated when a large volume of water in the sea, or in a lake, is rapidly displaced. This could be caused by a large submarine or coastal earthquake, underwater or terrestrial landslide, volcanic eruption or meteorite splashdown. | NEMA | Tsunami » National Emergency Management Agency (civildefence.govt.nz) |
| Volcanic activity | Volcanic activity includes either a volcanic eruption or sustained levels of volcanic unrest, which may or may not be a precursor to an eruption. Volcanic hazards include ash fall, lava flows, pyroclastic flows (superheated ash and gases), ballistic ejecta, lahars (ash and mudflows) and toxic gas emissions. | NEMA | Volcanic activity » National Emergency Management Agency (civildefence.govt.nz) |
| Severe weather and flooding | Severe weather refers to the occurrence of strong winds (including tornadoes) and/or heavy or prolonged rain and/or snow and/or coastal storm surges. Severe weather can cause flooding and landslides. | NEMA & MfE | Storms and severe weather » National Emergency Management Agency (civildefence.govt.nz) Flood » National Emergency Management Agency (civildefence.govt.nz) |
| Space weather | Space weather refers to variable conditions on the sun and in the space environment that can impact Earth’s magnetic field. A space weather event can cause severe geomagnetic disturbance that could negatively impact information and communications technology (ICT), global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), and other critical infrastructure. | NEMA & MBIE | National Space Weather Response Plan » National Emergency Management Agency |
| Drought | Drought is an extended period of unusually dry conditions or below normal rainfall affecting plant growth, and food and fibre production. | MPI | Dealing with drought conditions | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) |
| Pest or disease incursion | An incursion by an agricultural, environmental, or aquatic pest or disease-causing organism, or their vectors, presenting a biosecurity risk to New Zealand. | MPI | Biosecurity | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) Report a pest or disease | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) Foot and mouth disease readiness | NZ Government Brown marmorated stink bug: threat to NZ and identification | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) |
| Food safety incident | A food safety incident is a serious and uncontrolled foodborne risk to public health domestically or internationally that requires urgent action. | MPI | New Zealand Food Safety Strategy | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) |
| Communicable disease outbreak | Communicable diseases are diseases that spread from one person to another or from an animal to a person. Communicable disease outbreaks, particularly epidemics or pandemics, can result in large-scale health emergencies. | MOH | Communicable Disease Control Manual | Ministry of Health NZ |
| Vector-borne disease outbreak | Vector-borne disease outbreaks relate to the establishment of a competent disease vector (e.g. exotic mosquito) followed by transmission of an arboviral disease which in severe cases could have significant impacts on public health. | MOH | |
| Radiological or hazardous substance incident | A radiological or hazardous substance incident refers to an unplanned or uncontrolled release of hazardous material (such as chemical agents, corrosive materials, explosives, flammable gases/liquids, non-flammable gases, organic peroxides, oxidisers, radioactive material, toxic and infectious substances, and unexploded ordinances), that could have adverse effects on people, property and the natural environment. | FENZ & MOH | Ionising radiation safety | Ministry of Health NZ |
| Wildfire | Wildfire is an unwanted, uncontrolled fire which occurs within an area of combustible vegetation, often moving rapidly across the landscape. Although wildfires most commonly occur in rural areas, they also may occur within urban environments. | FENZ | Wildfire Readiness and Prevention | Fire and Emergency New Zealand |
| Major fire or explosion | A major structural fire or explosion in an inhabited location or location where business activities are carried out. | FENZ | Home | Fire and Emergency New Zealand |
| Major oil spill | A major oil spill refers to a widespread or large volume petrochemical spill into New Zealand’s internal or marine waters. They are typically a result of a shipping or transport, or offshore oil and gas accident. Oil spills may be either crude oils from offshore installations (including pipelines) and/or oil tankers, or refined products such as petroleum. | MOT (MNZ) | Oil spill response strategy - Maritime NZ |
| Major transport incident | A major transport incident is a significant air, sea or land incident involving one or more vehicles, ships or aircraft, with impacts that exceed normal events attended by emergency service responders such as multiple fatalities or significant damage. | MOT | |
| Commodity/energy price shock | A commodity/energy price shock is a sudden or significant increase in the price of a commodity or the supply of energy resources. | MBIE | |
| Failure or disruption of a major financial mechanism or institution | The failure or disruption of a major financial mechanism or institution (such as a major registered bank or large insurer), resulting in a sudden loss of a large portion of its nominal value, causing disruption to the provision of credit, transactional banking, insured risks or the payment and settlement process. | TSY | Financial Stability Report (updated 6 monthly) |
| Major trade disruption | Trade disruption occurs when barriers arise preventing or reducing New Zealand traders’ access to export markets for goods and services and/or hindering access to critical imports. Many natural, economic, and political factors could cause this, including market access risks, biosecurity threats, a major shock to multiple countries such as a pandemic, global financial crisis or armed conflict, and risks to the safe transport of goods to and from New Zealand. | TSY, MFAT & MPI | Export | NZ Government (mpi.govt.nz) |
| Significant disruption or failure of critical infrastructure | Significant disruption to, or loss of:
| DPMC & DIA, MOT or MBIE | Critical Infrastructure Resilience | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) |
| Terrorist attack | Under New Zealand law, a terrorist act is defined as an ideologically, politically, or religiously motivated act – including, but not limited to, those causing death or serious bodily injury – intended to intimidate a population, or to coerce or force the government to do or not do certain things. The scope of this risk includes a terrorist attack in New Zealand, and a terrorist attack off-shore impacting New Zealanders (e.g. while travelling, living/working off-shore or attending an international event). | DPMC | Counter-terrorism | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) |
| Act of foreign interference or espionage targeting New Zealand | Foreign interference is defined as an act by a foreign state, or its proxy, that is intended to influence, disrupt or subvert a New Zealand national interest by deceptive, coercive or corruptive means. By its nature, foreign interference can be difficult to discern and can take many forms (e.g. control or harassment of communities that whakapapa to foreign states, foreign information manipulation and interference, or cultivating relationships of influence or dependence that can be leveraged, such as with government officials). Espionage refers to clandestine activities undertaken to collect information, materials, or capability to obtain competitive advantage. For instance, state espionage targets New Zealand government entities for sensitive and protected information and capabilities, both in New Zealand and abroad; while economic espionage targets New Zealand’s commercial, research, and industrial entities for proprietary technology, research, and commercial information. | DPMC | Countering foreign interference | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) |
| Technological disruption due to adoption or misuse of emerging, critical and sensitive technologies | Emerging, critical and sensitive technologies (ECST) capture a range of technology areas, including artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, biotechnologies, and quantum technologies. While ECST can bring significant benefits to New Zealand’s economy, national security, and wellbeing, their adoption and potential misuse can pose national security and broader ethical concerns. These include the use of AI to automate cyberattacks or generate and/or share disinformation, the use of advanced biotechnology for malicious purposes, the use of quantum technology to break current encryption methods, and the exploitation of next generation communication networks to intercept or manipulate data. | DPMC | |
| Major cyber incident | A major cyber incident is an activity or event that threatens or affects the confidentiality, availability and integrity of New Zealand’s data and information infrastructures. Threats can come from malicious, state-sponsored actors, as well as organised criminal groups and individuals. | DPMC & GCSB | Cyber Security Strategy | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) Incidents | National Cyber Security Centre (ncsc.govt.nz) National Cyber Security Centre | Government Communications Security Bureau (gcsb.govt.nz) |
| Armed conflict | Armed conflict can be broadly understood as situations in which two or more opposing groups (either state actors or non-state actors) use organised armed violence to pursue their objectives at the expense of others. New Zealand’s interests can be put at risk by a wide range of actual and potential armed conflicts. This risk focuses on armed conflicts the New Zealand Government decides to commit national capabilities to protect, preserve and promote our interests to, particularly including the New Zealand Defence Force. | DPMC, MFAT & MOD | |
| Major threat to Pacific Regional Stability | New Zealand’s national security relies on a stable, resilient and prosperous Pacific. Instability in the region – whether due to social, political, economic, or environmental drivers - is likely to require deployment of New Zealand capabilities to preserve and protect our regional, bilateral, and national interests and obligations. | MFAT | |
| Deliberate interference, disruption or destruction of space assets, infrastructure or services upon which New Zealand rely | Deliberate interference, disruption or destruction of space assets, infrastructure (whether space or ground-based) or services can threaten the essential services that underpin our daily life – such as communications, navigation and financial transactions - and undermine our national security interests. Disruption or destruction can occur from remote or direct physical interference with space systems through a range of means, including active targeting. | NZDF, MOD & MBIE | |
| (Maritime) mass arrival | A mass arrival is when over 30 people, who do not have permission to enter New Zealand, arrive on board one craft or more at the same time, excluding scheduled international services. | MBIE & Customs | Preventing people smuggling | Immigration New Zealand |
| Major maritime security incident | A major maritime security incident refers to illegal or unwelcome behaviour in New Zealand’s maritime area-of-interest by a state or non-state actor that threatens New Zealand’s maritime interests. This includes deliberate territorial incursions and other non-approved activities, such as resource exploitation. | MOT | |
| Transnational organised criminal activity | Transnational organised crime refers to planned and systematic criminal activity, committed by a group or network, that has the objective of gaining profit, power or influence. Transnational organised crime specifically operates across national borders or has strong offshore links. It spans a wide range of illicit activities including illicit drug trafficking, financial crime, wildlife trafficking, cybercrime, and the exploitation of people. Transnational organised crime poses significant risks to our national security, law and order, public safety and wellbeing, and to the environment. | Police & Customs | Transnational Organised Crime in New Zealand: Our Strategy 2020 - 2025 | New Zealand Police |
| Violent protest or public disorder event | Significant and persistent unlawful mass disorder/activity arising from an event or mass act of civil disobedience (such as a riot) in which participants may become violent and hostile towards authority and/or their actions impact the functioning of key institutions and infrastructure. This is distinct from lawful protest activity and non-violent civil disobedience, which may have elements of minor short-term disorder or disruption. | Police |